In its just-released message saying that they are extending the MH370 search area, the Malaysian, Australian and Chinese authorities have not been specific about the precise geographical parameters of the extension.
But it looks as if the search will finally begin to encompass the area just beyond the south-western end of the Seventh Arc published search area, which is where Capt Simon Hardy’s mathematical calculations (published in December 2014 by Flightglobal) suggest it is most likely to be found.
This is a positive development, because Hardy’s calculations are by far the most plausible argument for the location of the lost aircraft. Nobody, including the Australian Transport Safety Bureau which is leading the search operation, has challenged the mathematical integrity of his calculations in the four months since publication.
In other words, if we are ever going to locate the missing Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777, this is where we should be looking. If it is not there – and it might not be – there is a case for giving up the search.
The calculations, including those of the ATSB and of Hardy himself, have had to start with some assumptions. If the assumptions are wrong, so is the search area.
But absolutely nowhere else is indicated. Not by data it isn’t.
The ATSB says the search will have to be abandoned during the southern hemisphere winter, which gives the ships at least another month of useful work.
If, by that time, the aircraft has not been located, the search will resume again when the weather recovers, and the ATSB says it will continue searching until the “highest probability area” has been entirely covered.
There is no money for a search directed according to conspiracy theories or “what if” scenarios.
